Affective Disorders and Risk Factors for Suicidal Behavior in Adolescents of the Orenburg Region: A Comparative Study (2018-2019 vs. 2022-2024)

Background. Adolescent suicidal behavior remains one of the leading causes of premature mortality and represents a significant medical and social problem. In the context of large-scale social transformations in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated changes in everyday life, the study of dynamics of affective disorders and risk factors for suicidal behavior in adolescents has become particularly relevant. Aim. To assess the dynamics of mood decline and risk factors for suicidal behavior among adolescents aged 14-17 years in different social periods (2018-2019 and 2022-2024), and to develop a predictive model for the risk of suicidal behavior.

Materials and Methods. A comparative epidemiological study was conducted involving 431 adolescents aged 14017 years. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Children’s Depression Inventory (M. Kovacs), and suicidal attitudes were evaluated using the suicide risk assessment questionnaire developed by T.N. Razuvaeva. Differences between groups were analyzed using Pearson’s chi-square test. A predictive model of suicidal behavior risk was constructed using binary logistic regression, and its diagnostic performance was evaluated using ROC-analysis.

Results and Conclusions. Statistically significant differences were identified in several indicators of suicidal risk, including demonstrativeness, uniqueness, social pessimism, breakdown of cultural barriers, and impaired time perspective. A decrease in the antisuicidal factor was observed in 2022-2024, which may indicate a weakening of protective psychological mechanisms in adolescents. According to the Children’s Depression Inventory, the proportion of adolescents with critically decreased mood nearly doubled compared with the pre-pandemic period. The constructed logistic regression model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0,834). The most significant predictors of suicidal behavior risk included the degree of mood decline, social pessimism, affectivity, breakdown of cultural barriers, and the anti-suicidal factor. The findings highlight the need for systematic monitoring of adolescent mental health and development of evidence-based preventive programs aimed at the early identification of high-risk groups.

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